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• | Earnings Sensitivities: the potential reduction in results of operations over a 30 year time horizon under the same moderate to extreme capital markets stress scenario. Maintaining a consistent level of earnings helps FGL to finance its operations, support capital requirements and provide funds to pay dividends to stockholders. |
FGL is also subject to cash flow stress testing pursuant to regulatory requirements. This analysis measures the effect of changes in interest rate assumptions on asset and liability cash flows. The analysis includes the effects of:
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• | The timing and amount of redemptions and prepayments in FGL’s asset portfolio; |
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• | FGL’s derivative portfolio; |
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• | Death benefits and other claims payable under the terms of FGL’s insurance products; |
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• | Lapses and surrenders in FGL’s insurance products; |
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• | Minimum interest guarantees in FGL’s insurance products; and |
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• | Book value guarantees in FGL’s insurance products. |
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is FGL’s primary market risk exposure. FGL defines interest rate risk as the risk of an economic loss due to adverse changes in interest rates. This risk arises from FGL’s holdings in interest sensitive assets and liabilities, primarily as a result of investing life insurance premiums and fixed annuity deposits received in interest-sensitive assets and carrying these funds as interest-sensitive liabilities. Substantial and sustained increases or decreases in market interest rates can affect the profitability of the insurance products and fair value of FGL’s investments, as the majority of FGL’s insurance liabilities are backed by fixed maturity securities.
The profitability of most of FGL’s products depends on the spreads between interest yield on investments and rates credited on insurance liabilities. FGL has the ability to adjust the rates credited, primarily caps and credit rates, on the majority of the annuity liabilities at least annually, subject to minimum guaranteed values. In addition, the majority of the annuity products have surrender and withdrawal penalty provisions designed to encourage persistency and to help ensure targeted spreads are earned. However, competitive factors, including the impact of the level of surrenders and withdrawals, may limit the ability to adjust or maintain crediting rates at the levels necessary to avoid a narrowing of spreads under certain market conditions.
In order to meet its policy and contractual obligations, FGL must earn a sufficient return on its invested assets. Significant changes in interest rates expose FGL to the risk of not earning the anticipated spreads between the interest rate earned on its investments and the credited interest rates paid on outstanding policies and contracts. Both rising and declining interest rates can negatively affect interest earnings, spread income, and the attractiveness of certain products.
During periods of increasing interest rates, FGL may offer higher crediting rates on interest-sensitive products, such as indexed universal life insurance and fixed annuities, and it may increase crediting rates on in-force products to keep these products competitive. A rise in interest rates, in the absence of other countervailing changes, will result in a decline in the market value of FGL’s investment portfolio.
As part of FGL’s asset/liability management program, significant effort has been made to identify the assets appropriate to different product lines and ensure investing strategies match the profile of these liabilities. FGL’s asset/liability management program is designed to align the expected cash flows from the investment portfolio with the expected liability cash flows. As such, a major component of managing interest rate risk has been to structure the investment portfolio with cash flow characteristics consistent with the cash flow characteristics of the insurance liabilities. FGL uses actuarial models to simulate cash flows expected from the existing business under various interest rate scenarios. FGL uses these simulations to measure the potential gain or loss in the fair value of interest rate-sensitive financial instruments, to evaluate the adequacy of expected cash flows from assets to meet the expected cash requirements of the liabilities and to determine if it is necessary to lengthen or shorten the average life and duration of its investment portfolio. Duration measures the price sensitivity of a security to a small change in interest rates. When the durations of assets and liabilities are similar, exposure to interest rate risk is minimized because a change in the value of assets could be expected to be largely offset by a change in the value of liabilities.
